The 2024 Presidential Election: Who Is Favored To Win?

Recently, in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election, Harris emerged victorious 60 times out of 100, while Trump secured 40 wins. The likelihood of there being no winner in the Electoral College is less than 1 in 100.

2024 Presidential Election: What are the latest national polls influencing the forecast?

We adjust polls for house effects, mode, partisanship, voter likelihood and third parties and weight them based on their firm’s 538 pollster rating and how often it polls.

Polls taken in the immediate aftermath of this week’s debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump showed that by a 23-point margin, debate-watchers thought Harris bested Trump in the matchup. The first batch of post-debate polls among the broader public confirms this trend, with our forecast margin in the national popular vote moving 0.8 percentage points in her direction by 5:00 pm Eastern on Friday, Sept 13.

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If we look at all the polls that have been conducted entirely post-debate and compare them to each firm’s pre-debate surveys, Harris’s momentum is clear. Harris gained 1 point on margin according to an Ipsos/Reuters national poll; 2 points in RMG Research’s polling; 2 points according to Morning Consult; and 1 point according to SoCal Strategies. Polls from Leger and Redfield & Wilton Strategies show Harris losing 1 point and running even (respectively) compared to their last surveys.

Harris has also been buoyed by some state polls released this week. In New Hampshire, a poll from Saint Anselm College Survey Center showing Harris up by 8 points pushed up her forecast win probability in the state from 77-in-100 times to 79-in-100. Polls in Alaska, Arkansas, North Carolina and Wisconsin have also been good for her. And because our model uses state polls to infer national trends, too, these shifts propagate nationwide and affirm Harris’s momentum in national polls.

Still, there are some caveats to this. The national post-debate polls we’ve seen are only online surveys, and live phone or other modes of polls conducted over the coming weekend may show different results. And of course, a half-dozen polls released in three days does not a bump make. We will update readers again next week when we have even more post-debate data.

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The forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.

How has the forecast changed over time?
The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get new data. Uncertainty will decrease as we get closer to Election Day.

2024 Presidential Election: Who’s favoured to win each state?

Number of electoral votes and the probability of a Democratic or Republican win in each state. Outlined states are most likely to give the winner their 270th Electoral College vote.