Why It Will Be Tough For Biden To Defeat Trump In The 2024 US Election

International News On Why It Will Be Tough For Biden To Defeat Trump In The 2024 US Election On November 5th.

The 2024 presidential general election is here, for all intents and purposes. Joe Biden and Donald Trump will square off in the first presidential rematch since 1956. It is also the first rematch between a sitting and past president since 1892.

But, unlike in 2020, when he was favored over Trump for the entire campaign, Biden has a more difficult road this time around. Indeed, he has a 50/50 chance of reelection, and supporters of the present president should be aware that Trump has a legitimate opportunity at retaking the White House.

Just look at the polls issued in the last week. The New York Times/Siena College, CBS News/YouGov, Fox News, and The Wall Street Journal all reported that Trump won more votes than Biden by 2 to 4 percentage points. (KFF had Biden scoring three points higher than Trump.)

All of these results were within the range of error, but taken together, they present a picture of a beleaguered incumbent.

Not only is Biden in worse shape versus his general election opponent than practically every incumbent in the last 75 years (with the exception of Trump in 2020). It’s that a Trump lead of any size was unprecedented during the 2020 campaign; not a single poll that satisfied CNN’s publication requirements showed Trump leading Biden nationally.

And in the 2020 election, the states that placed Biden ahead in the Electoral College (Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin) were all decided by less than a point. He had a very small margin for error.

Today’s polling numbers appear to be worse for Biden. I’ve previously noted that the president appears to be in a far weaker position in Sun Belt battleground states today than four years ago.

He is lagging by 5 points or more in the most recent polls from Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. Since 2004, no Democratic presidential contender has lost Nevada.

If Biden loses all of those states, he can still win if he carries every other election he won in 2020, which would allow him finish with 270-268 electoral votes. The issue for Biden is that he is behind in Michigan. The average of surveys conducted over the last six months that fulfill CNN’s reporting requirements shows him down four points.

According to the New York Times survey, 53% of likely voters believe Trump has committed a significant federal felony. The same survey had Trump ahead 4 points among likely voters.

Trump led in this poll because 18% of his followers indicated he had committed a severe federal felony but still supported him. Such a figure should frighten Biden supporters because if some people believe Trump committed a significant federal crime yet continue to vote for him, what may persuade them to change their minds?

Similarly, the Times survey revealed that 72% of potential voters thought Biden was too elderly to be a successful president (compared to a much smaller 53% who thought Trump had committed a significant federal crime). This disparity might be one of the main reasons Biden is having problems with Trump.

Perhaps the most important question over the next eight months will be whether Trump’s flaws begin to outweigh Biden’s. If they do, the president’s chances of reelection are likely to improve.

READ ALSO: 2024 US Elections – Everything You Need To Know